Half a Million in Disabled Households Forced into Severe Hardship by Green Paper Cuts

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New analysis has found that 440,000 people in Disabled households will be forced into severe hardship and at risk of needing a food bank in 2029/30, if the UK government goes ahead with planned cuts to social security.

The research produced by economic and public policy experts WPI Economics for leading food bank charity  Trussell show their projected impact of proposed changes to social security for Disabled people. They model their research on the number of people facing hunger and hardship in the UK, a measure of deep poverty. 

Note: People face severe hardship if they are more than 25% below the Social Metrics Commission's poverty line. This captures both people who are likely to need to turn to a food bank now and people who are at high risk of needing food bank support in the future. 

It also shows that the UK government's planned increase to the basic rate of universal credit (UC) will move 95,000 people out of severe hardship – which Trussell says is clear evidence this welcome step cannot possibly make up for the sheer scale of the damage of cuts.  

The net impact of reforms will be 340,000 more people facing hunger and hardship. This new research comes just weeks after Trussell revealed that almost 3 million emergency food parcels were distributed across the UK during the past year. This is equivalent to one parcel every 11 seconds and a 51% increase compared to five years ago. 

Trussell warns that the UK government’s proposed £7 billion cuts to support for Disabled people are likely to undermine its goal of increasing employment and will drive higher costs for public services.  

WPI Economics and Trussell have shown that even before these cuts, the ongoing failure to tackle hunger and hardship leads to the UK government spending an additional £13.7 billion a year on public services alone, such as with the NHS, schools and children’s social care. 

As MPs prepare to vote on legislation introducing the changes, Trussell is urging the UK government to think again and halt these damaging cuts to support for Disabled people. They will be condemning hundreds of thousands of people to severe hardship and piling the pressure on food banks across the country, which are already stretched to breaking point. 

As well as axing the proposed cuts, Trussell is calling on the UK government to bring forward the planned increase to the basic rate of UC, so it comes into full effect from April 2026, rather than April 2029. 

Helen Barnard, Director of Policy at Trussell, said: “This UK government was elected on a promise of change, and with a commitment to end the need for food banks. If the government goes ahead with these ill-considered and cruel cuts to social security, this promise will not be kept – and instead, they will risk leaving behind a legacy of rising poverty and hunger. 

“Tackling fiscal challenges should not be done at the expense of people already facing hunger and hardship. These cuts will force 440,000 people in Disabled households into severe hardship and leave them at risk of needing a food bank. We urge the government not to continue down this damaging path. 

“We support the plan to reform employment support and help more people into work, where their health allows this and accessible jobs are available, but these proposed cuts will utterly undermine this goal. Slashing support will damage people’s health and reduce their ability to engage in training and work.”   

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